In the past, I've managed to correctly guess the winners of as many as 19 of the major 24 Oscar categories. Other years, I was WAY off. Last year, I was right about the top 8 categories but didn't do as well with the rest. Still waiting on that Oscar pool money by the way!
Before I make my predictions, I want to say this was another awesome year for movies. Among those films not nominated, I thought Me and Earl and the Dying Girl deserved some recognition. And it goes without saying that Beasts of No Nation and Idris Elba in particular were robbed this year.
Below are my picks for who will win Oscars tonight, as well as who I think SHOULD win. Those aren't always the same. Let's see how I do this year!
Best Live Action Short Film
WILL WIN: Ave Maria
I admittedly haven't seen any of the Live Action shorts, and I even had the opportunity to, so that's on me. I must defer to the experts on this one, and they've gone with Ave Maria. It's about a family of Jewish settlers in the West Bank whose car breaks down in front of a convent. With the family unable to use the phone and the nuns unable to break their vow of silence, hilarity ensues. I assume?
Best Animated Short Film
WILL WIN: Sanjay's Super Team
Again, haven't seen any of these. Sanjay's Super Team has the big advantage here though, because it's a Pixar short (it appeared before The Good Dinosaur) so it's been seen by the most people prior to voting. Not to take away from its merits though - it's Pixar's first cartoon by a director of Indian origin.
Best Documentary Short
WILL WIN: Body Team 12
Body Team 12 tells the story of the people that were tasked with collecting dead bodies during the height of the Ebola outbreak in Liberia. It sounds the most interesting of the five shorts nominated.
Best Documentary Feature
WILL WIN: Amy
I definitely regret not seeing The Look of Silence, because that documentary looks really interesting. It's about a man who confronts the men who killed his brother during the Indonesian genocide of the 1960s. However, I still have a feeling that the doc featuring the late Amy Winehouse still has this one locked.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
I think Mad Max: Fury Road is actually the front runner for this category and I think that movie will deservedly walk home with many Oscars (more on that later). But if we're talking purely visual effects, I thought the latest Star Wars installment was the winner here. Everything from the stunning Millenium Falcon scenes to Lupita Nyong'o's motion capture work was certainly Oscar worthy. Side note: I'm still in disbelief that for the most part, The Force Awakens managed to live up to its hype.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Mad Max: Fury Road
And here we go! Mad Max: Fury Road was by far the most fun movie of the year and probably the one I re-watched the most. It's a pure adrenaline rush from start to finish while still managing to have enough depth to save it from the "it's just a good action movie" label. This is just one of the few Oscars I have pegged for Mad Max this year.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Mad Max: Fury Road
See above! By the way, are you wondering what the difference is between sound editing and sound mixing? Well, as I understand it, sound editors are the technicians that create sounds for a movie. They're responsible for everything from atmosphere noises to sound effects to ADR. The sound mixers often come into play during post-production to take all the sounds and work them together into the movie. Either way, Mad Max rules these categories.
Best Original Song
WILL WIN: "The Hunting Ground" from 'Til It Happens To You
SHOULD WIN: "Earned It" from Fifty Shades of Grey
Not really a great year for songs. This one's absolutely a popularity contest (as evidenced by the Academy's controversial decision to only allow the famous people to perform their songs during the broadcast) so I'm going with Lady Gaga on this one. If she wins this, she's halfway to joining only 12 other people who have won an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony. Seems like it could happen.
Best Original Score
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: The Hateful Eight
I know many are predicting that Best Original Score will go to composer John Williams and his score for The Force Awakens, but I'm breaking from the pack here again. While I was pretty disappointed overall with The Hateful Eight (I thought it went pretty downhill after the first half), a stand-out for me was the score by legendary Italian composer Ennio Morricone. He's been nominated five times prior but has never won and I think now is the time.
Best Achievement in Make-Up and Hairstyling
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Mad Max: Fury Road
Just three nominees in this category! When in doubt, go Mad Max. Always go Mad Max.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
WILL WIN: Cinderella
SHOULD WIN: Mad Max: Fury Road
Costume Design is always a hard category for me to predict. The costume designers always manage to break away from the other categories and award an Oscar to a movie that may not be good, but may have awesome costumes. I think this year will be no different. Cinderella seems like a really strange movie to be nominated, so I'm going to with it. But guys...Mad Max.
Best Achievement in Production Design
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Mad Max: Fury Road
Mad Max will ride off eternal, shiny and chrome in this category. There was no better overall look in any movie this year than the designs of the cars and props from Mad Max. In less than two hours, they managed to present a fully realized fictional world with different warriors and groups that each had an amazing and unique look. There's just no competition.
Best Achievement in Film Editing
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Mad Max: Fury Road
I can't even imagine the nightmare of editing Fury Road. There's just SO much going on throughout every frame of that movie. Checking for continuity must have been a nightmare. Am I wrong for thinking Mad Max is going to walk away with most of the technical awards? Maybe? But it's safe bet it'll win many of them.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: The Revenant
One of the few technical categories that I think Mad Max won't win. The Revenant was truly breathtaking in parts and most of that is because of Emmanuel Lubezki's cinematography. Think about it - how often does a big production go into the Canadian wilderness to really shoot in the elements? Emmanuel Lubezki and director Alejandro G. Inarritu decided to shoot all the exteriors using only natural light, to preserve the authenticity of the locations. That's real dedication and it shows.
Best Foreign Language Film
WILL WIN: Son of Saul
I didn't manage to see any of the foreign films this year, but I will say that Son of Saul is definitely the one I heard the most positive things about. It's a Hungarian film about a prisoner whose job is to dispose of the bodies of his own people at the Auschwitz concentration camp in 1944. After he forms a bond with a young boy, he becomes determined to give the boy a proper burial. Doesn't exactly sound like the "feel good movie of the year," but I'm definitely interested.
Best Animated Feature Film
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Inside Out
As someone in their twenties who not too long ago left home, I found myself relating to a lot of Pixar's latest hit, Inside Out. And I'm sure most people, kids and parents, related to it as well. It was just a good movie on so many levels - from its animation style to its expert voice acting to its message. It's my pick, hands down. I will admit that I didn't get a chance to see Anomalisa though, and its stop-motion animation style intrigues me as well.
Best Adapted Screenplay
WILL WIN: The Big Short
SHOULD WIN: The Martian
I actually really liked The Big Short and in lesser years, it probably would go home tonight with more Oscars than it will. It managed to take a subject that seems pretty inaccessible to the average viewer (myself included) and turn it into a very entertaining movie. A lot of that is due to the screenplay by Adam McKay and Charles Randolph. Who knew Adam McKay had it in him? However, I think the screenplay by Drew Goddard (who also wrote episodes of Lost and the awesome The Cabin in the Woods) was sharper and funnier. I don't see The Big Short going home empty-handed so I'm going with that one.
Best Original Screenplay
WILL WIN: Spotlight
SHOULD WIN: Ex Machina
Ex Machina is so underrated, it's almost criminal. It plays like the best episode of The Twilight Zone and features three amazing performances. Oscar Isaac's dance scene alone is worthy of an Oscar. Spotlight, on the other hand, was also really good. Based on a true story, it's two hours of journalists sitting at desks and the writing is so smart, it's never boring. Similar to my thoughts above on The Big Short, I don't see Spotlight walking away with nothing (nor should it). That said, of the five nominated original screenplays, Ex Machina and Inside Out are the true original screenplays. The rest are at least loosely based on real events. It may sound silly, but in my mind, that makes Ex Machina a little more deserving.
Best Achievement in Directing
WILL WIN: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
SHOULD WIN: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
I'm a little torn on this one because I thought both movies were excellent. Apparently over the past 25 years, the person who wins that year's Director's Guild award has an 84% chance of going on to win the Oscar. You can't argue with statistics, so it's a safe bet that it will be Inarritu. For me personally though, I just thought Mad Max had the more impressive direction. A lot has been said about the grueling production process of The Revenant and while I think it's admirable, I don't think it's necessarily relevant to the finished product that we see on screen. And that's what this award is for.
Make sure to check back later tonight and see how I did! Who do you think will win? Hit the comments and let me know.
Best Supporting Actress
WILL WIN: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
SHOULD WIN: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
I'll admit upfront that I also haven't seen The Danish Girl but I've heard that Alicia Vikander's performance is great. It's been a breakthrough year for her as she was also awesome in Ex Machina. I wasn't entirely blown away by any of the other nominees - I thought Rooney Mara (Carol) and Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) were pretty average. And Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) was a little too over-the-top. Kate Winslet managed to disappear into her role and become one of the best things about the disappointing Steve Jobs. I'm torn about this one - I'm sure I'll be impressed by Vikander when I see the movie finally.
Best Supporting Actor
WILL WIN: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
SHOULD WIN: Tom Hardy, The Revenant
There's been a lot of talk about Sylvester Stallone deserving this Oscar because he never received one for his original portrayal of Rocky Balboa in 1977. I don't really subscribe to the idea that someone should win an Oscar for their body of work or because they missed out in previous years. I think the nostalgia factor will propel him to victory here, but he simply didn't have the best supporting performance this year for me. That honor goes to Tom Hardy, who was unbelievably terrifying in The Revenant. It needs to be said, however, that Creed was an unbelievable movie. I believe it should have been in serious consideration for other categories, especially Best Director. How often is a franchise reinvented in such an exciting, original way decades after the original movie?
Best Lead Actress
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Brie Larson, Room
No one even begins to come close to Brie Larson's performance in Room here. I thought Room was SO good. It was unbelievably intense and captivating and both her and 9-year-old Jacob Tremblay's performances were incredible. I would even go as far as saying I would remove Christian Bale from the Best Supporting Actor category to have him nominated instead. I see Brie Larson deservedly winning this award tonight and she should share it with her pint sized co-star.
Best Lead Actor
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
This one's a no-brainer as well. It's a bit of a shame too because I don't think the performance that will finally get Leo his Oscar was even his best. I think he should have won in 2005 for his portrayal of Howard Hughes in The Aviator and I would have even picked him to win two years ago for The Wolf of Wall Street. This was, however, the best performance of the year by far. Just the physical acting alone (Leo's Hugh Glass finds himself immobile after a gruesome bear attack) is Oscar worthy. In fact, thinking back on the movie, Leo really doesn't even have that much dialogue. It's a testament to an amazing actor that they can convey that much pain and emotion on their face without saying much at all.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
WILL WIN: The Revenant
SHOULD WIN: Room
Surprised I didn't go with Mad Max? I think Mad Max deserves every single technical achievement it wins and it will probably be the movie I revisit the most over time. But if I'm thinking about the movie that I enjoyed the most overall this year - the story, performances, directing, etc. - that was Room. I was so blown away by it and found myself on the edge of my seat during the entire movie. I was completely invested in the characters and what happened to them and I haven't felt that way about a movie in a long time. I do think that the Oscar is going home with The Revenant though and I wouldn't be too upset about it. I think the Academy is really enchanted by its intense production and will award for that. For me, I think The Revenant had beautiful cinematography and direction and some great performances, but I thought it lacked depth. Man is betrayed by his partners. Man seeks revenge. That was basically it. Room (and then Mad Max) were the real winners for me this year.
Make sure to check back later tonight and see how I did! Who do you think will win? Hit the comments and let me know.
-Jared
