The Emmys, on the other hand, are a whole different beast. The Emmys are more unpredictable than the Oscars. There aren't so many obvious choices as there really isn't any true frontrunners here. I also don't get a chance to watch all of the television shows nominated, whereas it's a lot easier to watch most of the big movies nominated for Oscars. I wouldn't be surprised if many of my predictions are absolutely wrong here.
As always, I've listed my predictions for the top 19 categories as well as who I think deserves to win each category. Those are definitely not always the same!
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Will Win: Louis C.K. for Louie episode "Duckling"
Should Win: Robert B. Weide for Curb Your Enthusiasm episode "Palestinian Chicken"
(I admittedly am ashamed to admit I've only seen one or two episodes of Louie. As for the other nominees, I think Girls and New Girl are overrated. This episode of Curb was hilarious though.)
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Will Win: Michael Cuesta for Homeland episode "Pilot"
Should Win: Vince Gilligan for Breaking Bad episode "Face Off"
(Nothing that has ever been on television was better than the Season 4 finale of Breaking Bad. Homeland gets a lot of love - I'm just starting to watch it now - but Vince Gilligan deserves this.)
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Will Win: Lena Dunham for Girls episode "Pilot"
Should Win: Chris McKenna for Community episode "Remedial Chaos Theory"
(I think Girls is criminally overrated, but people LOVE Lena Dunham so I see her winning this one and that's it for the night. Community, on the other hand, is criminally underrated.)
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Will Win: Julian Fellowes for Downtown Abbey episode "Episode 7"
Should Win: Semi Chellas and Matt Weiner for Mad Men episode "The Other Woman"
(I haven't seen Downtown Abbey yet, but just from the incredible word of mouth I can't see the show walking away empty handed. This episode of Mad Men, on the other hand, was absolutely amazing. It's the heart-breaking episode where Joan was asked to make the ultimate sacrifice for the company.)
Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series
Will Win and Should Win: The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
(No Conan? Ridiculous. It would be dumb to bet against the Daily Show though. In the past ten years it's won 17 Emmys, which is insane. Good for the Daily Show team though, the show is great.)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Will Win and Should Win: Jessica Lange for American Horror Story: Asylum
(Haven't seen American Horror Story, but I've heard Jessica Lange is awesome in it.)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Will Win: Ed Harris for Game Change
(I'm indifferent towards this category because I haven't seen the other nominees and I didn't think Ed Harris' performance was that special.)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win and Should Win: Julie Bowen for Modern Family
(Sure, why not? She's funny.)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Ty Burrell for Modern Family
Should Win: Ed O' Neill for Modern Family
(This category essentially comes down to which Modern Family actor is your favorite. I've seen a couple episodes and thought it was pretty funny. Apparently Ty Burrell has won a couple times already, so I think he'll win again. But Ed O' Neill is awesome.)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win: Maggie Smith for Downtown Abbey
Should Win: Christina Hendricks for Mad Men
(Maggie Smith has this one in the bag. But I also think that Christina Hendricks proved that she can more than keep up with the other incredible actors on Mad Men this past season, which is no easy feat.)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win and Should Win: Giancarlo Esposito for Breaking Bad
(This is the biggest no-brainer this year. Giancarlo Esposito gave us the best television villain of all time as Gus on Breaking Bad this year. Jared Harris' role on Mad Men was also so damn good that I wish he wasn't in the same category as Esposito.)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Will Win and Should Win: Julianne Moore for Game Change
(Julianne Moore was awesome as Sarah Palin in Game Change. I admit it's the only one of these miniseries that I actually got the chance to see, but I can't see her not winning this one.)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Will Win: Benedict Cumberbatch for Sherlock
(Again, I'm sort of indifferent to this category since I haven't seen any of the nominees besides Game Change, but I've heard really good things about Sherlock and especially Cumberbatch's performance.)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep
Should Win: Amy Poehler for Parks and Recreation
(The critics LOVE Julia Louis-Dreyfus, so I think she has the edge here. But Amy Poehler's been nominated three times for her role on Parks and Rec and has yet to win! In the words of her ex-husband Will Arnett, "COME ON!")
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Louis C.K. for Louie
Should Win: Larry David for Curb Your Enthusiasm
(This is a weird category to predict. Jim Parsons from The Big Bang Theory won the previous two years which is mind-boggling to me. I think it's probably Louie's year, but damn Larry David was good this past season on Curb.)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win: Claire Danes for Homeland
Should Win: Glenn Close for Damages
(Anyone who reads this blog or knows me at all knows my love of the show Damages. It just concluded its final season and Glenn Close proved that she's one of the best and most underrated actresses of all time. However, Damages this past season aired on the DirectTV channel, which most people don't get and I'm sure that hurts her chances. I'm just starting Homeland now and I hear Claire Danes is awesome in it. She definitely appeals to a wider audience.)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win and Should Win: Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad
(Year after year, Bryan Cranston has amazed as Walter White on Breaking Bad. We've seen Walter go from the empathetic cancer patient to the take no prisoners villain he's now become. And it's been believable every step of the way thanks to Bryan Cranston. Coincidentally, he's won three times for this role already, so if he wins this year, he'll tie the all-time Emmy record for wins for the same role.)
Outstanding Comedy Series
Will Win: Modern Family
Should Win: Curb Your Enthusiasm
(What a weak category. Modern Family is funny, there's no doubt about that, but it's won the past two years already. Isn't there any other comedy that can compete with it? 30 Rock hasn't been as good lately and I've already talked about my dislike for Girls. Curb was really funny this past season though.)
Outstanding Drama Series
Will Win: Mad Men
Should Win: Breaking Bad
(This is like asking me to pick who my favorite child was, if I had children. I love both these shows and they were both so good last season, but Breaking Bad was just a little bit better. That being said, I think Mad Men appeals to a wider variety of viewers than Breaking Bad and that gives it the edge. However, Mad Men has won the Best Drama Series Emmy for the past four years and Breaking Bad hasn't won the category yet. That's criminal.)
And those are my picks! Let's see how well I do. Hit the comments section below and let me know who you think deserves to win. How do my predictions stack up against yours?
-Jared
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