This year, through the magic of joining the Producer's Guild of America and getting free movie screeners, I've managed to see nearly all of the nominated films. I've seen 9/10 of the Best Picture nominees (sorry Philomena) and I'm feeling very confident this year.
Below are my picks for who will win the Oscars this Sunday, as well as who I think SHOULD win. Those aren't always the same. Let's see how I do this year!
Best Live Action Short Film
WILL WIN: "The Voorman Problem"
(Okay, these next 4 categories are always the hardest because I definitely didn't see ANY of these films. So I'll only include who I think WILL win. This one had the most intriguing title.)
Best Animated Short Film
WILL WIN: "Get A Horse!"
(Again, best title.)
Best Documentary Short
WILL WIN: "The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life"
(This one's about a 109 year old Holocaust survivor - who actually passed away a few days ago. I think this documentary sounds really interesting.)
Best Documentary Feature
WILL WIN: "The Act of Killing"
(It's unfortunate I didn't get to see any of the documentary nominees this year because I love documentaries. But this one, in which former Indonesian death-squad leaders reenact their mass-killings in different film genre scenarios, sounds absolutely nuts.)
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: "Gravity"
(How could Gravity not win this category? I didn't LOVE the movie, but the visual effects were admittedly incredible.)
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: "Gravity"
(Gravity was truly a great accomplishment technically. I think it will sweep a lot of the technical categories, but not the more major ones.)
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: "Gravity"
(It may not win both this and the above category, but it'll win at least one of them.)
Best Original Song
WILL WIN: "Let It Go" from "Frozen"
SHOULD WIN (& SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED): Anything from "Inside Llewyn Davis"
("Let It Go" has become REALLY popular, but how was nothing from "Inside Llewyn Davis" nominated? That movie had BY FAR the best songs of the year. What an underrated movie that film has become and I'm not sure why.)
Best Original Score
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: "Saving Mr. Banks"
("Saving Mr. Banks" was robbed of more Oscar nominations - it's definitely a way better film than some of the Best Picture nominees. Emma Thompson should have been nominated, period. I'm not too confident about my guess here, but Banks shouldn't go home empty handed.)
Best Achievement in Make-Up and Hairstyling
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: "Dallas Buyers Club"
(You know it's a weak category when only three films are nominated and two of them are Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa and The Lone Ranger. This one's a no-brainer. That being said, "Dallas Buyer's Club" deserves this win regardless.)
Best Achievement in Costume Design
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: "The Great Gatsby"
(I'm currently working with a group of costume designers, and they're split between The Great Gatsby and American Hustle for this category. American Hustle was by far the greater film, but Gatsby probably had the better costumes.)
Best Achievement in Production Design
WILL WIN: "American Hustle"
SHOULD WIN: "Her"
(I think "American Hustle" will snag this one, but my vote goes to "Her's" subtle yet artistic futuristic design.)
Best Achievement in Film Editing
WILL WIN: "Gravity"
SHOULD WIN: "Captain Phillips"
(Like I said earlier, I think "Gravity" will win a bunch of the more technical Oscars. But I have to give it up to "Captain Phillips" - there wasn't a more nail-biting and intense movie this year and a lot of that had to do with the pacing and editing.)
Best Achievement in Cinematography
WILL WIN: "Gravity"
SHOULD WIN: "Inside Llewyn Davis"
(I'm starting to realize I'm picking "Gravity" for way too many categories. It'll win a lot, but I'm not entirely sure which categories. The Coen Brothers movie "Inside Llewyn Davis" was underrated in my opinion though, and was a visually stunning movie. That one gets my pick here.)
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
WILL WIN: "The Great Beauty" from Italy
(I haven't seen any of the foreign language films this year and haven't heard much about them either. This one is a complete guess.)
Best Animated Feature of the Year
WILL WIN: "Frozen"
(Haven't seen any of the animated features, but I've heard a TON of great things about this movie.)
Best Adapted Screenplay
WILL WIN: "12 Years A Slave"
SHOULD WIN: "The Wolf of Wall Street"
(And so begins "12 Years A Slave's" probable collection of Oscars. But I think the superior yet controversial screenplay was "Wolf of Wall Street's." That movie's dialogue was witty and smart and the Quaaludes scene itself deserves an award.)
Best Original Screenplay
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: "Her"
(I didn't think "Her" was a perfect movie by any means but it was definitely the most original story here. Even small details, like Joaquin Phoenix character's job in the movie, was original and creative. I know a lot of people are guessing "American Hustle" will win this one, but I think the script was the weakest part of that movie. I'm gonna stray from the pack and guess "Her" will win.)
Best Achievement in Directing
WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron for "Gravity"
SHOULD WIN: Martin Scorsese for "The Wolf of Wall Street"
(I think Alfonso Cuaron is a lock for "Gravity" here, but I really liked "The Wolf of Wall Street." It definitely isn't Martin Scorsese's best, or even in his Top 3. But it's still really good. His only win was for 2006's "The Departed" which is the biggest proof that the Oscars are complete BS anyway.)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Lupita Nyong'o in "12 Years A Slave"
(What a weak category this year. Julia Roberts was just okay in the horrible "August: Osage County" and Sally Hawkins' performance in "Blue Jasmine" just seemed normal. June Squibb was hilarious in "Nebraska," but she really isn't even in that movie that much. I think Jennifer Lawrence was a little overrated in "American Hustle" - how old is her character supposed to be? Lupita Nyong'o was awesome in "12 Years A Slave," but I think she wins this one by default anyway.)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Jared Leto in "Dallas Buyers Club"
(This is definitely a more competitive category. All of the nominees were pretty awesome this year, especially complete newcomer Barkhad Abdi in "Captain Phillips" and Michael Fassbender in "12 Years A Slave." I see this one going to Jared Leto though - his performance as the transgendered Rayon proves that the 30 Seconds to Mars frontman still has an incredible talent.)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Lead Role
WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett in "Blue Jasmine"
(Cate Blanchett was AWESOME in "Blue Jasmine." Her performance as disgraced socialite Jasmine was nuanced and perfect. I think Cate Blanchett may be one of the greatest actresses working today, right behind Meryl Streep. Speaking of Meryl Streep, I don't know what that "August: Osage County" movie was, but just because she's Meryl doesn't mean she has to be nominated every year. PS - where was Emma Thompson's nomination damnit!? She was better than Amy Adams AND Sandra Bullock in my opinion.)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Lead Role
WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey in "Dallas Buyers Club"
SHOULD WIN (& SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED): Tom Hanks in "Captain Phillips"
(This category is the most competitive one this year. McConaughey has turned into the definite favorite, but I'd be okay with every single one of these nominees winning this year. Christian Bale, Bruce Dern, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Chiwetel Ejiofor were all awesome this year. The one omission that I think is pretty disappointing was Tom Hanks. Watch the last fifteen minutes of "Captain Phillips" and tell me it wasn't one of the best acting performances of all time. That being said, I'm not sure who I'd take out to put Hanks in.)
Best Motion Picture of the Year
WILL WIN: "12 Years A Slave"
SHOULD WIN: Hmm?
(I think this category is really only between "12 Years A Slave" and MAYBE "Gravity" or "American Hustle." The hardest thing to pick is which one I liked the best. I liked most of the nominees this year a lot, but I can't help but feel that "Saving Mr. Banks" should have been nominated here. I think I loved that movie a lot more than most, and I would probably take out "Nebraska" or even "Gravity" to make room for it. That being said, I think "12 Years A Slave" will almost definitely win the biggest award of the night.)
Make sure to check back in a few days to see how I did! The major six categories are probably easier to predict this year, but the others definitely aren't. I think choosing Ellen DeGeneres as host this year is a decent choice (it's a safe choice though) and I'm interested to see how she does. All I know is it can't be worse than that James Franco/Anne Hathaway abomination a few years ago.
-Jared
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