I'm actually pretty decent at guessing which people and films will go home with Academy Awards. I believe at my best, I've guessed 19 out of 24 of the categories correctly. I credit this to the Oscars being a little more predictable than other awards shows (there's a lot of guild awards before the Oscars that give hints as to who will win) and just the fact that I see a lot of movies.
Some things to note first: I obviously haven't seen all of these movies, especially some of the foreign films, documentaries, and shorts. As much as I tried to see all the major nominated films this year, there were also some big ones I didn't get around to watching. I've seen seven of the nine Best Picture nominated films, only missing out on Hidden Figures and Hacksaw Ridge. I also haven't seen Loving, 20th Century Women, or Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Besides those, I actually managed to see a lot of the other nominees this year.
Below are my picks for who will win Oscars tonight, as well as who I think SHOULD win. Those aren't always the same. Let's see how I do this year.
Best Live Action Short Film
WILL WIN: Enemies Within
I haven't seen any of these films so I defer to the experts on this one. Enemies Within is the favorite to win. It's a French film about an Algerian man seeking French citizenship and the interrogation he goes through over his suspected link to Muslim terrorists. Sounds pretty topical. Of the other nominees, the Hungarian film Sing also sounds pretty good.
Best Animated Short Film
WILL WIN: Piper
I haven't seen any of these either, but Piper is a Pixar film and when in doubt, go Pixar. Plus, the animation is off-the-charts realistic. Here's the trailer to judge for yourself.
Best Documentary Short Subject
WILL WIN: Extremis
The experts have decided that this one is a toss-up between Extremis and Joe's Violin. Time to read the descriptions for each doc and see which one sounds the most interesting. Extremis follows doctors at an ICU in Oakland, California as they treat terminally ill patients and advise families on critical decisions. Joe's Violin is about a 91-year-old Holocaust survivor who donates his beloved violin to a young student in the Bronx. Both sound worth watching but I'm going with Extremis, which is available to watch on Netflix by the way.
Best Documentary Feature
WILL IN: O.J.: Made in America
I had the opportunity to see O.J.: Made in America in its entirety at the Museum of the Moving Image here in New York, but stupidly mixed up my days and missed it. I've heard the ESPN documentary series is incredible though and I will definitely catch it soon. Of the other nominees, I also really want to see Ava Duvernay's 13th (she also directed 2014's Selma). 13th is available on Netflix, so I don't have a good excuse here.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: The Jungle Book
Now onto the categories where I've seen the nominees! This one's a tough one because Doctor Strange's visuals also blew me away, but I think The Jungle Book owns this category. The film's style has revitalized the classic Disney movie genre and work is already underway to give The Lion King the same treatment as The Jungle Book. It won't be long until all the classic Disney films have been remade with CGI like this one. I'm not quite sure how I feel about that, by the way.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
SHOULD WIN: Arrival
WILL WIN: Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival really blew me away. I think many people, including myself, approached this movie thinking it was a sci-fi movie that would tread on ground we've already visited many times before. We couldn't be more wrong as Arrival ended up being so much more. It was an alien movie but it was just as much about the characters as it was the aliens. That said, I don't foresee it winning any Oscars and I think it should, especially in this category for the creation of the alien sound effects. I haven't seen Hacksaw Ridge, but industry experts are strongly in favor of this winning so I'm going with it.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: La La Land
What's the difference between sound editing and sound mixing? As I understand it, the technicians that work in sound editing create sounds for a movie. They're responsible for everything from atmosphere noises to sound effects to ADR. Sound mixers come into play later on, taking all the sounds and working them together into the movie. I think La La Land has this category locked - a trend you'll see continue many more times during Oscar night.
Best Original Song
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: "City of Stars" from La La Land
This one's a done deal. I had this song stuck in my head after seeing the trailer, several months before I even saw the film. The only way I could see Lin Manuel Miranda winning for his Moana song is if the vote gets split between the two La La Land songs as the other one that's nominated is also really good.
Best Original Score
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: La La Land
La La Land isn't without its flaws, but its score is definitely one of the highlights. There's also a cool story here: composer Justin Hurwitz was director Damien Chazelle's roommate while the two were at Harvard University. They made 2013's Whiplash (my favorite film of that year) together when they were just 28. La La Land is just their second feature film. That's a hell of a career start for both of them. As a 28-year-old myself, I am equally impressed as I am envious.
Best Achievement in Make-Up and Hairstyling
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Star Trek Beyond
I've never been a big fan of any of the Star Trek TV series or movies, but I thought Star Trek Beyond was pretty great. For this category, you could pinpoint Idris Elba being unrecognizable as villain Krall as one of the stand-outs. I thought actress Sofia Boutella's look was really cool too. While it's funny that the dumpster fire known as Suicide Squad got nominated for an Oscar, no. Just no.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
SHOULD WIN: Jackie
WILL WIN: La La Land
I think this one may go either way between these two films. For me, I thought the costumes in La La Land were pretty standard. There isn't anything that really stood out for me. There was a lot of attention on the costumes in Jackie though - one of Jacqueline Kennedy's suits is even an important part of the plot. It also has the advantage of being a period piece, which I think often lends to more creativity. I don't think it's enough to topple the monster that is La La Land though.
Best Achievement in Production Design
SHOULD WIN: Arrival
WILL WIN: La La Land
See above. I think La La Land is going to sweep nearly all of the categories it's nominated in, including this one. People are just IN LOVE with this movie. I think Arrival deserves this one though. The look and feel of the film - specifically the designs of the aliens and their spaceship and how they operated within the movie - were just awesome. It's a concept that has been done so many times before but Arrival was creative and unique.
Best Achievement in Film Editing
SHOULD WIN: Arrival
WILL WIN: La La Land
Same thing here. I think La La Land was awesome for its music, score, direction, and acting, but I don't think it was the best movie this year in some of these more technical categories. In terms of actual film editing, I was just more impressed by how Arrival was put together.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
SHOULD WIN: Silence
WILL WIN: La La Land
I thought Martin Scorsese's Silence ended up being a pretty underrated film from last year and I'm not quite sure why that is. My guess is that while it ended up being a fascinating tale of a man's faith being put to the ultimate test, it didn't quite hit the high standard that Martin Scorsese has set for himself. It's not even close to being in his Top 5. I think if it had been directed by someone else, it would have been considered a triumph. Definitely go check it out if you haven't seen it yet.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
WILL WIN: The Salesman
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Make sure to check back later tonight to see how I did! Who do you think will win? Let me know in the comments.
I haven't had the chance to see any of these but there's a lot of buzz around The Salesman. It's an Iranian film about a husband who is consumed by revenge after an act of violence devastates his family. It's also worth noting that A Man Called Ove is nominated here and in the Make-Up and Hairstyling category. I think that's pretty unusual for a foreign language film.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
WILL WIN: Zootopia
Fun fact: Pixar has won 8 out of the 10 times one of their movies has been nominated for Best Animated Feature. I'm a little surprised that Finding Dory wasn't nominated, but Zootopia is also a Pixar film so it would be foolish to bet against it. Out of the rest of the competition, I think Moana has a chance and Kubo and the Two Strings looks interesting.
Best Adapted Screenplay
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Moonlight
A lot of people will be upset, but this is the only Oscar that I see Moonlight winning this year. Again, Academy voters tend to fall in love with a single movie and have that one movie win a lot of the categories. This year that movie is La La Land, just as Mad Max: Fury Road swept a ton of categories last year. Thankfully for Moonlight, La La Land was an original screenplay so it's opened this category up. I liked Moonlight quite a bit, but I found the first segment to be by far the most interesting so when many of those characters disappeared a third of the way into the movie, I thought the film suffered a bit. Still, it deserves this award.
Best Original Screenplay
SHOULD WIN: Hell or High Water
WILL WIN: Manchester by the Sea
I actually don't see La La Land taking this one, despite what I said above. Manchester by the Sea is an incredibly moving film about relationships, family, and loss. It's also the most depressing film of the year. It's extremely well-written though and I don't see the film walking home empty-handed. Personally, I'm giving it up to Hell or High Water, another underrated film from last year. I found that one to be really fun and creative and it just edges out Manchester by the Sea for me.
Best Achievement in Directing
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Damien Chazelle is one of the most impressive up-and-coming directors working today. Like I mentioned earlier, his first two features (this and 2013's Whiplash) were two of my favorite films from their respective years. His idea of creating a musical romantic comedy, set in present-day but honoring classic musicals like Singin' in the Rain, was genius. While a lot of films try to mimic classic movies, this one feels like it's from a different era. It's beautifully made. It's also the only one of the 2016-nominated films that I've seen twice, which for me is telling.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Viola Davis, Fences
I wasn't blown away by Denzel Washington's adaptation of Fences because I thought it was pretty much just the Broadway play in a different medium. While staying as true to the source material is usually important, I thought this film could have been a little more creative. And I don't mean by changing the story at all. There were ways the story could have been a little more cinematic. There were many instances where we'd hear a story instead of see a story, which usually works better in plays. That aside, Fences is a masterclass in acting. Viola Davis is in a league of her own and with three Oscar nominations now under her belt, she's quickly being cemented as one of the greatest actresses working today. I think tonight is the night she wins her first Oscar.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Like I said above, one of my only criticisms of Moonlight was that I found the first segment to be vastly superior to the two segments that followed it. One of the reasons for that is that Mahershala Ali's character disappears after the first segment and he's incredible in this film. I thought his character's relationship with the main character was the best part of the movie. He was also really great in House of Cards and Luke Cage, so he had a hell of a 2016. I'm excited to see what he has up his sleeve next, but regardless, I think this Oscar is his.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman, Jackie
WILL WIN: Emma Stone, La La Land
To be fair, I haven't seen Loving or Elle. Meryl Streep ends up getting nominated for all of her performances these days because she's just that damn good in everything, but Florence Foster Jenkins was kind of a silly movie. That leaves Natalie Portman and Emma Stone and it's a tough one deciding between these two. I thought Natalie Portman was awesome in Jackie - she embodied the dual personalities of Jacqueline Kennedy (her personal and public personas) to perfection. The movie just wasn't as great as it could have been though. For that reason, and because people are so in love with La La Land, I see Emma Stone winning here. She's won the Screen Actor's Guild, Golden Globe, and BAFTA awards already for this role and the trend will probably continue.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
SHOULD WIN: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
WILL WIN: Denzel Washington, Fences
Denzel Washington is incredible in pretty much every movie. It's expected at this point. He's got this one in the bag probably, but I think Casey Affleck had the most difficult job of any actor this year. His character in Manchester by the Sea is a mopey, unlikable asshole for the most part. Of course, throughout the film, we see why he's become the way he is. But for a majority of the movie, we're expected to stick with this character that we would never want to be friends with. I think this movie could have been a massive failure in the hands of a lesser actor. Casey Affleck not only makes Lee Chandler relatable, but you end up rooting for this sad sack. It must not have been an easy feat to pull off.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN: La La Land
Surprised? I believe there's been an unfair backlash against La La Land because it's a "fun movie" whereas some of the other nominees are films with much more important themes and messages. I agree with that notion, but I don't think La La Land is a frivolous movie by any means. If you're grading a movie based on its potential impact on our culture, I think there's other clear winners here. Moonlight, of course, conveyed a really important message by portraying lives that are usually never seen in movies. I also thought Lion was an incredibly touching movie about family and identity. There's no rule against a movie just being fun though and La La Land was just a great experience. I know it's controversial, but I think La La Land was the best made movie of the year.
Make sure to check back later tonight to see how I did! Who do you think will win? Let me know in the comments.
-Jared
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